Is This the End of MAGA?

Of all things for MAGA to fight about, I suppose foreign policy was always going to be the diciest. In the constellation of Trump’s disparate supporters, domestic policy – Trump’s views on things like immigration, the economy, energy, culture – has been largely uncontested inside the movement.

After all, Trump convinced long-term deficit hawks (ahem, Mike Pence) to stop caring about fiscal responsibility – publicly, anyway.

So-called Family Values Republicans – ie the Christian Coalition – dropped their moral superiority real fast to support the least pious, faithful, or moral president to have ever been elected.

Law and order? Who cares anymore?

Small government? Nah.

Civil liberties? Who needs ‘em?

Trump’s hostile takeover of the Republican party – was it even really that hostile?? – was pretty darn swift and, for many movement conservatives like me, completely nauseating.

But the MAGA coalition hasn’t been quite as coalesced on foreign policy and Trump’s views on America’s role in the world.

That’s likely because most Americans don’t care as much about foreign policy, and neither does Trump, really. Yes, he’s interested in playing strongman, but it’s doubtful he has any real “philosophies” on geopolitics, other than what he can get out of it.

And now, the one doctrine he credits himself with having – “America First” – is driving the first real wedge in the MAGA movement, and is threatening to blow it all up.

The growing war between Iran and Israel is splitting MAGA into very odd factions that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago, when it was still unimaginable that Israel and Iran would be lobbing missiles at each other, or that Trump would be actively inserting America into the terrifying fracas.

Despite entering politics as an anti-war Republican and proud isolationist, Trump is now going farther than even the hawkiest of Republican presidents before him went – openly threatening to bomb Iran and assassinate its leader.

Per the New York Times, Trump is “seriously considering sending American aircraft in to help refuel Israeli combat jets and to try to take out Iran’s deep-underground nuclear site at Fordo with 30,000-pound bombs – a step that would mark a stunning turnabout from his opposition just two months ago to any military action while there was still a chance of a diplomatic solution.”

If that sounds wild, his most recent social media posts are nothing short of psychotic:

Trump’s clear zeal for entering this war has divided his supporters, who are now fighting amongst themselves.

On the pro-war side, there’s Mark Levin, who’s excitedly pushing for more American intervention, insisting – without evidence – that Iran is just days away from having nukes.

Levin is fighting with Tucker Carlson, who is slamming Trump and Levin for wanting to get embroiled in another foreign conflict, which he correctly sees as a betrayal of America First.

Trump has responded to Tucker, calling him “kooky,” and saying, “Let him go get a television network and say it so that people listen.” Sick burn.

Carlson has allies in Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who opposes the war, and Steve Bannon, the architect of Trump’s American nationalism. Greene has defended Tucker, posting on X:

“And foreign wars/intervention/regime change put America last, kill innocent people, are making us broke, and will ultimately lead to our destruction. That’s not kooky. That’s what millions of Americans voted for. It’s what we believe is America First.”

As for Bannon, he’s predicting the “globalist neocons” wanting this war will mean “the end of Israel.”

Of course, Trump still has reliable lapdogs who’ll back whatever he says or does, even if it contradicts something they believed in five minutes earlier.

Professional conspiracist and troll Laura Loomer, Charlie Kirk, and Sean Hannity back Trump unconditionally, including on this.

Other loudmouths in the MAGA fold, however, are pushing back. Jack Posobiec, Candace Owens, Steven Crowder, Dave Smith and Mike Cernovich have reprimanded Trump for abandoning his promise and dragging Americans into another costly war.

In Congress, Kentucky Republican Rep. Thomas Massie has joined with Democrats, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, to introduce a war powers resolution requiring Congress to vote on any attacks on Iran, saying, “This is not our war.”

Meanwhile, New York Rep. Mike Lawler is firmly with Trump, saying of the resolution, “If AOC and Massie are a yes, that’s a good bet I’ll be a no.”

And in the Senate, Lindsey Graham is encouraging Trump to “help Israel finish the job.”

It’s hard to keep up with all the micro-fights inside of MAGA, but these are very real fissures, the likes of which we’ve not seen before. Trump’s sudden warheads-on-foreheads attitude toward Iran is not welcome news in a lot of MAGA corners, and for once, they’re letting him know it. Depending on how this goes in the next few days, weeks, and months, we might see a once-unified coalition splinter into competing factions, and even weakening Trump’s hold on the Republican party.

In fact, Bannon is warning American involvement would break MAGA, while others speculate it could seriously damage Trump as well.

As for voters, most didn’t come out for Trump in 2016 or 2024 to watch him shove America into World War III. In many cases they voted for him explicitly in opposition to that, or for domestic policies that he promised to prioritize.

But don’t get too excited. MAGA was never, and isn’t still, tied together by ideology, policies, or even issues. It was always tied together by one thing only – Trump. So even though some of MAGA’s platformed surrogates are breaking with Trump, MAGA voters likely won’t be swayed by Steve Bannon or Marjorie Taylor Green. Unless, of course, it’s their kids that Trump starts sending off to war.

In more ways than one, this Israel/Iran conflict feels like a powder keg….